In France, headlines focus on who will be the first party at national level to win the European elections. But National Rally has shown that being the number one does not help much in the European Parliament.
Take the Front national back in 2014 : despite being the strongest French team at EP, with 24 MEPs, they didn’t manage to change anything in the EU. Without a proper group and influential people, going to Strasbourg is rather useless.
The Nationaly rally campaign for EU elections is focused on a new concept called « local », and it pretends to stand for environmental issues. This is either a non-sense or a lie. During the last 5 years at European Parliament they voted against most environmental texts : against the protection of oceans and fishes, against climate ambition, against pesticide control.
They also voted against the revamping of posted workers directive though they accuse Eastern countries nationals of unfair competition. Globally their votes didn’t bring major changes to any legislation, they just slowed the process. The Front national also lost quite a lot of people along the road : their group is only 16 now, as disagreements were numerous inside the party.
What they did manage is having serious problems with the justice. 10 outgoing MEPs are under justice scrutiny, and 3 of them are running for the elections.
Despite all those scams and mistakes, according to a poll, they could keep their 1st place at EP. It seems to prove something : people vote for them to show their anger rather than for their program, as they don’t care about what they do as MEPs. It’s a real issue, and Yellow vest show the deep gaps from which France society is suffering.
Creating consensus
But the consequences of this potential 1st place at EU elections are not that important. At EP, what counts is creating consensus and convince other countries of your point of view. When your opinion is nationalist and your votes show few rationality, your chances of convincing the others are light.
And it’s exactly the same for Renaissance : if their list reaches the 1st place, and statistics show they have 5 chances out of 6 to get there, they will claim a huge victory.
It won’t be. Being the 1st is fun when you are a kid at school, at least in France old-fashioned education system. But at EP it does not help much. Everybody knows the 1st political force will be EPP, as usual. If Renaissance has 24 MEPs instead of 20, it won’t change much : they will be part of the 3rd center group anyway, and their only chance of weighing in the game is to gain strong jobs at EP. With Nathalie Loiseau accused of being a candidate on an extreme-right list as a student, her chances of heading the center party are diminishing.
Being the first and win the election is a very national target : it will help Macron mostly. For some, it could help France.
Take the Front national back in 2014: despite being the strongest French team at EP, with 24 MEPs, they didn’t manage to change anything in the EU.
Their campaign for EU elections is focused on a new concept called “local”: it pretends to stand for environmental issues. This is either a non-sense or a lie.
During the last five years at the European Parliament they voted against most environmental texts: against the protection of oceans and its habitat, against climate ambition, against pesticide control.
They also voted against the revamping of the posted workers directive though they accuse Eastern countries nationals of unfair competition.
Globally their votes didn’t bring major changes to any legislation.
They also lost quite a lot of people along the road: their group is only 16 now, as disagreements were numerous inside the party.
What they did manage is having serious problems with the justice. Ten outgoing MEPs are under justice scrutiny, of them 3 are running for re-election.
Despite all those scams and mistakes, according to a poll, they could keep their first place in the French constituency at the EP. This seems to prove something: people vote for them to signal their anger rather than in support of their program, since they don’t care at all about what they do as MEPs. It’s a real issue, and the Yellow vest is another example of the deep gaps from which France society is suffering.
Creating consensus
But the consequences of this potential 1st place at the EU elections are not that important. At the EP, what counts is creating consensus and convincing MEPs from other countries to back your point of view. When your opinion is nationalist and your votes show few rationality, your chances of convincing the others are light.
And it’s exactly the same for Renaissance : if their list reaches the 1st place, and statistics show they have 5 chances out of 6 to get there, they will claim a huge victory.
It won’t be. Being the 1st is fun when you are a kid at school, at least in France’s old-fashioned education system. But at the EP it does not help much. Everybody knows the 1st political force will be the EPP, as usual. If Renaissance has 24 MEPs instead of 20, it won’t change much : they will be part of the center, the 3rd group anyway, and their only chance of weighing in the game is to gain strong jobs at EP in terms of Committee Presidents and rapporteurs on important dossiers. With Nathalie Loiseau accused of having been candidate on an extreme-right list as a student, her chances of heading the center party are diminishing.
There is nothing French people like more than polls. Political parties and government pay for a few of them, but most of this polling activity is pro bono. The polling companies are some of the biggest in the world, and they love doing polls during campaign; it does not bring much money, as a lot of polls are done for free for media. But they gain visibility: their names are quoted everywhere. The last poll always erases the previous one, as if the last opinion was more relevant. But it’s not !
It’s just the last picture of a versatile opinion. It does not have a great meaning regarding statistics. And it does not tell anything about the EU.
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